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market-scan.md

Specialty coffee wholesale — market scan

Prepared for Ember & Oak · October 2026 · 6 sources

Finding 1

Regional chains buy local, but audit hard

Chains with 8–30 locations prefer regional roasters for freshness story, but require documented QC: cupping logs, roast-date guarantees, and 48-hour fulfillment SLAs. Two of the three chains interviewed dropped a roaster over missed deliveries, not price.

Sources: Interviews: 3 regional café chains (OR/WA) · SCA wholesale survey 2025

Finding 2

The pricing gap sits at 5lb

12oz wholesale clusters tightly at $13–15/lb with little room to move. The 5lb food-service tier is less efficient — most roasters underprice it to win accounts, then get stuck. Roasters holding a 55%+ margin on 5lb win fewer accounts but keep them longer.

Sources: Wholesale price sheets: 11 PNW roasters · Roast Magazine cost study 2026

Finding 3

Inference: our edge is reliability, not price

Ember & Oak's 81% capacity with zero missed roast days is the actual pitch. Price 5lb at the margin floor and sell the SLA — competing on price in this tier is a losing game the data doesn't support.

Sources: Inference from findings 1–2 · Ember & Oak ops data Q3

Specialty coffee market scan — Ember & Oak

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